698
FXUS62 KTAE 070653
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK OFTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING GREATER THAN 3 FEET WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AROUND THE
REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY, BUT FLOODING
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN STARTS CREEPING BACK NORTHWEST AS THE
STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. IT'S FORECAST TO MOSEY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS IT RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. REGARDLESS OF
THE TRACK, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS. WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
IF REALIZED, THESE TOTALS ARE LIKELY LEAD TO LEAST ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOW SOGGY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT WIND, SURGE, OR TORNADO IMPACTS
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE, IF ANY, TO OUR LOCAL AREA.
TD#9 WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF ECP/TLH/VLD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS LOW STRATUS IS
TYPICALLY SLOW TO LIFT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 3
FEET TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE. EYES TURN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP
TO BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MINRH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAVY RAINFALL RISK THAN AREAS EAST. GIVEN THE NOW
SOGGY CONDITIONS, THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD LIKELY
CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME INSTANCES OF RIVER
FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 66 82 66 / 20 0 30 60
PANAMA CITY 82 67 82 67 / 20 0 20 60
DOTHAN 83 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 30
ALBANY 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 84 64 84 65 / 10 0 20 50
CROSS CITY 81 68 81 68 / 70 20 50 80
APALACHICOLA 79 70 79 70 / 50 20 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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