850
FXUS62 KTAE 071308
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
- ISAIAS CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK
OFTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING GREATER THAN 3 FEET WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO BETTER SHOW CURRENT TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AROUND THE
REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY, BUT FLOODING
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN STARTS CREEPING BACK NORTHWEST AS THE
STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON ISAIAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF. IT'S FORECAST TO MOSEY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT
RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK,
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS
EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS. WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IF REALIZED, THESE TOTALS ARE LIKELY LEAD TO LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
NOW SOGGY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT WIND, SURGE, OR TORNADO IMPACTS
THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE, IF ANY, TO OUR LOCAL AREA.
ISAIAS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
OF ECP, TLH, AND VLD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS LOW STRATUS IS TYPICALLY
SLOW TO LIFT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 3
FEET TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE. EYES TURN TO ISAIAS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP
TO BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MINRH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ISAIAS NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAVY RAINFALL RISK THAN AREAS EAST. GIVEN THE NOW
SOGGY CONDITIONS, THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD LIKELY
CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME INSTANCES OF RIVER
FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 66 82 66 / 20 0 30 60
PANAMA CITY 82 67 82 67 / 10 0 20 60
DOTHAN 83 61 82 61 / 10 0 10 30
ALBANY 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 84 64 84 65 / 20 0 20 50
CROSS CITY 81 68 81 68 / 80 20 50 80
APALACHICOLA 80 70 79 70 / 40 20 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page