513
FXUS62 KTAE 080515
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL,
FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK OFTEN FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA
COUNTIES AND MIDDLE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWEST AS THE STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
AT 2 PM ET, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS STILL LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH AND MOVING ENE AT 8
MPH. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY AND MAY BE LOPSIDED
TOWARDS THE EAST, LEADING TO WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH TIMING AND
TRACK. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGE SIZE OF ISAIAS, THE WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND
WELL INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. AN EXPECTED FAST FORWARD
SPEED MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND.
STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUR WHOLE COASTLINE INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY. INUNDATION VALUES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL (AGL) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO
INDIAN PASS, 3 TO 5 FEET AGL FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE AUCILLA RIVER,
AND 2 TO 4 FEET AGL FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO YANKEETOWN.
SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE
THE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IF REALIZED, THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING. IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE EXACT TORNADO IMPACTS, IF ANY, BUT A FEW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME.
ISAIAS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER THAN 3 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE. EYES TURN TO ISAIAS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP COOLER WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP
TO BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MINRH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAVY RAINFALL RISK THAN AREAS EAST. GIVEN THE NOW
SOGGY CONDITIONS, THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD LIKELY
CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME INSTANCES OF RIVER
FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 68 77 68 / 10 30 80 70
PANAMA CITY 83 68 78 68 / 10 30 80 90
DOTHAN 84 64 78 63 / 0 10 50 80
ALBANY 85 64 77 65 / 0 0 40 70
VALDOSTA 86 67 79 68 / 0 20 60 70
CROSS CITY 81 69 80 70 / 50 50 90 70
APALACHICOLA 80 71 78 72 / 30 50 90 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ009>015-027-326-426.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ007-008.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ114-115-118-127.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR FLZ134.
GA...NONE.
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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