939
FXUS62 KTAE 081010
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
610 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL,
FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK OFTEN FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY IS THE DAY TO MAKE YOUR PREPARATIONS FOR ISAIAS BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETEORIATE ON FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG BEND COAST WHERE
SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CLEANUP EFFORTS.
1) FLOODING RAIN: SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT
RAINFALL WILL MAKE THE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WOULD LIKELY CAUSE
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING. CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING FEEDER BANDS
SET UP, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
2) DAMAGING WINDS: THE WIND FIELD WITH ISAIAS WILL EXPAND AS IT
NEARS THE COAST, AND WET SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE TREES TO COME DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN
TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
3) TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE FEEDER BANDS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE, MAINLY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
4) STORM SURGE: INUNDATION VALUES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
(AGL) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO INDIAN PASS, 4 TO
6 FEET AGL FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE, AND 2 TO 4 FEET AGL
FROM STEINHATCHEE TO YANKEETOWN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000 FT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
AROUND VLD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA WITH TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS RAMPING UP ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH ISAIAS APPROACHING AND
PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE WAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE TRAINING FEEDER
BANDS SET UP. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAVY
RAINFALL RISK THAN AREAS EAST. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 69 77 69 / 10 20 80 90
PANAMA CITY 83 69 77 69 / 20 30 70 90
DOTHAN 83 66 77 64 / 0 0 60 90
ALBANY 82 67 77 66 / 0 0 50 90
VALDOSTA 85 69 79 69 / 10 10 70 90
CROSS CITY 81 69 81 71 / 60 60 80 70
APALACHICOLA 80 71 78 73 / 50 50 80 100
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ007-008.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ007>015-027-114-115-118-127-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR FLZ134.
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ065>069.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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