359
FXUS62 KTAE 082011
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND HEAD EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AT 10 MPH. A NORTHWARD TURN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.
- RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FINALIZE THEIR PREPARATIONS TODAY AND
EARLY TOMORROW.
- POTENTIAL THREATS INCLUDE: WIND, STORM SURGE, FLOODING, AND
TORNADOES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
USE THIS TIME TO FINISH PREPARATIONS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND COUNTIES.
HURRICANE ISAIAS, NOW AT 85 MPH, CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
IT IS PUSHING ENE THROUGH THE GULF AT 10 MPH. AN EVENTUAL TURN
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY, WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING TO BE
FELT IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THAT MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED AND LOPSIDED AT LANDFALL, WITH MANY OF THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS STILL FELT WELL EAST OF THE PATH CENTER. MANY OF
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN RESPONSE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY. WIND WILL START OFF ELEVATED IN THE MORNING, WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL INCREASING BY MIDDAY. THIS INCREASE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CLEANUP EFFORTS.
1) FLOODING RAIN: SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT
RAINFALL WILL MAKE THE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING FROM RUN TO RUN, THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT TRACK AND MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS A TRAINING N/S ORIENTED BAND SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDING
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY 5-10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 A POSSIBILITY.
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BOTH BE
CONCERNS AS A RESULT.
2) DAMAGING WINDS: THE WIND FIELD WITH ISAIAS WILL EXPAND AS IT
NEARS THE COAST, AND ALREADY WET SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN, COMBINED
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS, WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TREES TO COME
DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
3) TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE FEEDER BANDS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE, MAINLY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
4) STORM SURGE: INUNDATION VALUES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
(AGL) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO INDIAN PASS, 4 TO
6 FEET AGL FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE, AND 3 TO 5 FEET AGL
FROM STEINHATCHEE TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA. CONDITIONS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA WITH TROPICAL
STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS RAMPING UP ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH ISAIAS APPROACHING AND
PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE WAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE TRAINING
FEEDER BANDS SET UP. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 76 70 80 / 30 90 80 100
PANAMA CITY 69 77 70 82 / 30 100 100 80
DOTHAN 66 74 64 79 / 0 90 100 90
ALBANY 67 75 65 78 / 10 80 90 100
VALDOSTA 69 77 69 83 / 20 80 90 90
CROSS CITY 69 81 72 86 / 80 80 70 80
APALACHICOLA 71 79 74 82 / 70 100 90 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ007>017-027-114-115-118-127-326-
426.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ007-008.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ018.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ121-142-143-155-156.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GAZ120-122>127-144>146-157-158.
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ065>069.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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