822
FXUS62 KTAE 090414
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW MARINE, KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
IMPACTS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM ISAIAS WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST
CONE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER, INCLUDING THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES, AND WIND.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, A LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE
FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORE. SEVERAL TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
USE THIS TIME TO FINISH PREPARATIONS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND COUNTIES.
HURRICANE ISAIAS, NOW AT 85 MPH, CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
IT IS PUSHING ENE THROUGH THE GULF AT 10 MPH. AN EVENTUAL TURN
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY, WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING TO BE
FELT IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THAT MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED AND LOPSIDED AT LANDFALL, WITH MANY OF THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS STILL FELT WELL EAST OF THE PATH CENTER. MANY OF
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN RESPONSE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY. WIND WILL START OFF ELEVATED IN THE MORNING, WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL INCREASING BY MIDDAY. THIS INCREASE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CLEANUP EFFORTS.
1) FLOODING RAIN: SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT
RAINFALL WILL MAKE THE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING FROM RUN TO RUN, THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT TRACK AND MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS A TRAINING N/S ORIENTED BAND SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDING
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY 5-10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 A POSSIBILITY.
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BOTH BE
CONCERNS AS A RESULT.
2) DAMAGING WINDS: THE WIND FIELD WITH ISAIAS WILL EXPAND AS IT
NEARS THE COAST, AND ALREADY WET SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN, COMBINED
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS, WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TREES TO COME
DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.
3) TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE FEEDER BANDS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE, MAINLY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
4) STORM SURGE: INUNDATION VALUES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
(AGL) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO INDIAN PASS, 4 TO
6 FEET AGL FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE, AND 3 TO 5 FEET AGL
FROM STEINHATCHEE TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA. CONDITIONS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LATE IN THE PERIOD LLWS WILL BE
PRESENT, INCREASING THEREAFTER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS OF 11 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS LOCATED ABOUT 365
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA. ISAIAS HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 100 MPH AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES, A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MEXICO BEACH TO THE OKALOOSA-WALTON
COUNTY LINE, AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS EAST MEXICO BEACH TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WATERSPOUTS. EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE VESSELS AND SEVERELY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, ALTER COURSE, AND/OR
SECURE THE VESSEL FOR EXTREME CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY FOR RECOVERY EFFORTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH ISAIAS APPROACHING AND
PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE WAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE TRAINING
FEEDER BANDS SET UP. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 70 80 72 / 90 80 100 60
PANAMA CITY 77 70 82 73 / 100 100 80 60
DOTHAN 74 64 79 66 / 90 100 90 50
ALBANY 75 65 78 69 / 80 90 100 70
VALDOSTA 77 69 83 72 / 80 90 90 70
CROSS CITY 81 72 86 74 / 80 70 80 70
APALACHICOLA 79 74 82 74 / 100 90 90 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ009>017-027-114-115-118-127-326-
426.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027-028-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ007-008-108-112.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ018.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ121-142-143-155-156.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>147-155>159.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GAZ120-122>127-144>146-157-158.
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ065>069.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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