211
WTUS82 KTAE 090930
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426-GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158-091730-
HURRICANE ISAIAS LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL092026
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026 /430 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**ISAIAS INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE SOON**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL BAY AND SOUTH WALTON
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WALTON AND NORTH
WALTON
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL GULF, COASTAL JEFFERSON, AND
COASTAL WAKULLA
- A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE AND
COASTAL TAYLOR
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN, CLAY,
COFFEE, DALE, DECATUR, EARLY, GADSDEN, GENEVA, HENRY, HOLMES,
HOUSTON, INLAND BAY, INLAND FRANKLIN, INLAND GULF, INLAND
WAKULLA, JACKSON, LEON, MILLER, NORTHERN LIBERTY, SEMINOLE,
SOUTHERN LIBERTY, AND WASHINGTON
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BAKER, CALHOUN,
COLQUITT, DOUGHERTY, GRADY, INLAND JEFFERSON, LEE, MITCHELL,
QUITMAN, RANDOLPH, TERRELL, THOMAS, AND WORTH
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY OR ABOUT 290
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
- 26.4N 88.0W
- STORM INTENSITY 110 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 5 AM ET, HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH AND MOVING NE AT 14 MPH. THERE ARE
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSES WEAKENING
AS ISAIAS NEARS THE COAST. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST LATER TONIGHT AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE, NONETHELESS. A CONSIDERABLY LARGE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION EAST OF THE TRACK FOSTERS IMPACTS
ARE WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S
CENTER.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS
EARLY AS THIS MORNING THEN INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS
SHOULD HAVE FINALIZED THEIR PREPARATIONS BY THIS TIME.
THE HURRICANE'S FAST FORWARD SPEED FOLLOWING LANDFALL WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE
OF THE STORM. A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALL OF
OUR PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST. LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION VALUES OF
5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PANHANDLE TO INDIAN PASS, 4 TO 6 FEET FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER, AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO
SUWANNEE RIVER, COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE. THE GREATEST SURGE RISK
WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL SALTWATER FLOODING MAY LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THE PRE-EXISTING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
COVER THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE TRI-STATE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE ANTICIPATED RAIN.
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FL BIG BEND ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST
AL & SOUTHWEST GA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM OUTER AND TRAILING RAIN BANDS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME
STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS. MANY
ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LARGE AREAS OF DEEP INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING
ACCENTUATED BY BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS,
WITH SEVERAL WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING DEBRIS.
LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
- LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS
WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND
BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS.
- MAJOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. MANY
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN UNPROTECTED
ANCHORAGES WITH SOME LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS OF
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG
BEND.
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, WITH SOME HAVING
WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES LEADING TO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED, WITH SOME DESTROYED.
DAMAGE ACCENTUATED BY AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS.
- MANY LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. SEVERAL BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- LARGE AREAS WITH POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED TO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE WESTERN & SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE RELOCATING TO SAFE SHELTER, LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MANY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL
BE CLOSED ONCE STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST
BEFORE DEPARTING AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
IF HEADING TO A COMMUNITY SHELTER, BECOME FAMILIAR WITH THE SHELTER
RULES BEFORE ARRIVAL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE SPECIAL NEEDS OR HAVE
PETS. TAKE ESSENTIAL ITEMS WITH YOU FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT.
FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.
KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED. CELL PHONE CHARGERS FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN
BE HELPFUL, BUT BE AWARE OF YOUR RISK FOR DEADLY CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING IF YOUR CAR IS LEFT IDLING IN A GARAGE OR OTHER POORLY
VENTILATED AREA.
IF YOU ARE A VISITOR, BE SURE TO KNOW THE NAME OF THE CITY IN WHICH
YOU ARE STAYING AND THE NAME OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH IT RESIDES. LISTEN
FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES. PAY ATTENTION FOR
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
STORM SURGE IS THE LEADING KILLER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES! MAKE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE AREA AWAY FROM THE SURGE ZONE.
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SURGE-PRONE AREA, YOU COULD FIND YOURSELF
CUTOFF BY FLOOD WATERS DURING AND AFTER THE STORM. HEED EVACUATION
ORDERS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
RAPIDLY RISING FLOOD WATERS ARE DEADLY. IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD-PRONE
AREA, CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED
ROADWAY. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, BE READY TO SHELTER
QUICKLY, PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND IN AN INTERIOR ROOM NOT PRONE
TO FLOODING. IF DRIVING, SCAN THE ROADSIDE FOR QUICK SHELTER OPTIONS.
IF IN A PLACE THAT IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WIND, SUCH AS NEAR LARGE
TREES, A MANUFACTURED HOME, UPPER FLOORS OF A HIGH-RISE BUILDING, OR ON
A BOAT, CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER SHELTER BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG
WINDS OR FLOODING.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 12 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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