816
WTUS82 KTAE 091528
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426-GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158-092330-
HURRICANE ISAIAS LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL092026
1128 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026 /1028 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
**CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST THIS EVENING**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR COFFEE, GENEVA, HOLMES, INLAND BAY, AND WASHINGTON
- THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BAKER, CALHOUN, COLQUITT, DOUGHERTY, GRADY, INLAND
JEFFERSON, LEE, MITCHELL, QUITMAN, RANDOLPH, TERRELL, THOMAS,
AND WORTH
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL BAY AND SOUTH WALTON
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WALTON, COFFEE,
GENEVA, HOLMES, INLAND BAY, NORTH WALTON, AND WASHINGTON
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL GULF, COASTAL JEFFERSON, AND
COASTAL WAKULLA
- A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE AND
COASTAL TAYLOR
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAKER, CALHOUN,
CALHOUN, CLAY, COLQUITT, DALE, DECATUR, DOUGHERTY, EARLY,
GADSDEN, GRADY, HENRY, HOUSTON, INLAND FRANKLIN, INLAND GULF,
INLAND JEFFERSON, INLAND WAKULLA, JACKSON, LEE, LEON, MILLER,
MITCHELL, NORTHERN LIBERTY, QUITMAN, RANDOLPH, SEMINOLE,
SOUTHERN LIBERTY, TERRELL, THOMAS, AND WORTH
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY OR ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
- 27.7N 87.3W
- STORM INTENSITY 120 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
..ALL TROPICAL WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
..CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY
..PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
AT 11 AM ET, HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL
GULF WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH AND MOVING NNE AT 16 MPH.
THERE ARE OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD LATER
TODAY AND ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER
ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST LATER TONIGHT AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE, NONETHELESS. A CONSIDERABLY LARGE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION EAST OF THE TRACK FOSTERS IMPACTS
ARE WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S
CENTER.
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING THEN INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE
FINALIZED THEIR PREPARATIONS BY THIS TIME.
THE HURRICANE'S FAST FORWARD SPEED FOLLOWING LANDFALL WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CORE
OF THE STORM.
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALL OF OUR PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST. LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION VALUES OF 6 TO 9 FEET
ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO
GRAYTON BEACH. FROM GRAYTON BEACH TO INDIAN PASS, 4 TO 7 FEET, 4 TO 6
FEET FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER, AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM
THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER, COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH
TIDE. THE GREATEST SURGE RISK WILL BE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL
SALTWATER FLOODING MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW.
SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THE PRE-EXISTING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO COVER THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE TRI-STATE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE ANTICIPATED RAIN.
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND TODAY INTO SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST AL &
SOUTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW MAY
BE STRONG, ARE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER AND TRAILING RAIN BANDS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME
STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LARGE AREAS OF DEEP INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING
ACCENTUATED BY BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS,
WITH SEVERAL WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING
DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
- LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS
WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND
BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS.
- MAJOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. MANY
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WITH SOME LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES CAN GREATLY HINDER THE
EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- MANY PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS OF
IMMENSE DESTRUCTION, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOF AND WALL FAILURES OF STURDY
BUILDINGS WITH SOME BEING LEVELED, STRUCTURES UPON WEAK
FOUNDATIONS BLOWN AWAY, MOBILE HOMES OBLITERATED, LARGE TREES
TWISTED AND SNAPPED WITH FORESTED TREES UPROOTED, VEHICLES
LIFTED OFF THE GROUND AND THROWN, AND SMALL BOATS DESTROYED.
LARGE AND DEADLY PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND.
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WESTERN & SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE RELOCATING TO SAFE SHELTER, LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MANY ROADS AND BRIDGES
WILL BE CLOSED ONCE STRONG WINDS ARRIVE. CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST BEFORE DEPARTING AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
IF HEADING TO A COMMUNITY SHELTER, BECOME FAMILIAR WITH THE SHELTER
RULES BEFORE ARRIVAL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE SPECIAL NEEDS OR HAVE
PETS. TAKE ESSENTIAL ITEMS WITH YOU FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT.
FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.
KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED. CELL PHONE CHARGERS FOR AUTOMOBILES
CAN BE HELPFUL, BUT BE AWARE OF YOUR RISK FOR DEADLY CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING IF YOUR CAR IS LEFT IDLING IN A GARAGE OR OTHER POORLY
VENTILATED AREA.
IF YOU ARE A VISITOR, BE SURE TO KNOW THE NAME OF THE CITY IN WHICH
YOU ARE STAYING AND THE NAME OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH IT RESIDES.
LISTEN FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES. PAY ATTENTION FOR
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
STORM SURGE IS THE LEADING KILLER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES! MAKE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE AREA AWAY FROM THE SURGE
ZONE. EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN A SURGE-PRONE AREA, YOU COULD FIND
YOURSELF CUTOFF BY FLOOD WATERS DURING AND AFTER THE STORM. HEED
EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
RAPIDLY RISING FLOOD WATERS ARE DEADLY. IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD-PRONE
AREA, CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED
ROADWAY. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, BE READY TO SHELTER
QUICKLY, PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND IN AN INTERIOR ROOM NOT
PRONE TO FLOODING. IF DRIVING, SCAN THE ROADSIDE FOR QUICK SHELTER
OPTIONS.
IF IN A PLACE THAT IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WIND, SUCH AS NEAR LARGE
TREES, A MANUFACTURED HOME, UPPER FLOORS OF A HIGH-RISE BUILDING, OR
ON A BOAT, CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER SHELTER BEFORE THE ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS OR FLOODING.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 6 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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