471
FXUS62 KTAE 091853
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IMPACTS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THE REST
OF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED AT THIS POINT.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM ISAIAS WELL BEYOND THE
FORECAST CONE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER,
INCLUDING THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES,
AND WIND.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
POSSIBLE FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE ISAIAS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED. A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF OUTER BANDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER DUE TO AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE DETAILED BELOW:
1) FLOODING RAIN THREAT:
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF A
TRAINING N/S ORIENTED BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST. IF REALIZED, THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME
RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA. HEED ANY FLOOD WARNINGS AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
4) STORM SURGE THREAT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FL PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST, WHERE THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A PEAK STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 9
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PANHANDLE TO GRAYTON BEACH. FROM GRAYTON BEACH TO INDIAN PASS 4 TO 7
FEET, FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER 4 TO 6 FT, AND 3 TO
5 FEET FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE GREATEST
SURGE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES.
PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS, INCLUDING ANY
EVACUATION ORDERS.
3) TORNADO THREAT:
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER AND TRAILING
RAIN BANDS. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS, SO ENSURE
THAT YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, INCLUDING THOSE
THAT WILL AWAKE YOU FROM SLEEP.
2) WIND THREAT:
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGE SIZE OF ISAIAS AS IT NEARS NORTHERN GULF
COAST, THE WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AN EXPECTED FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CORE OF THE STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LEAD TO SATURATED SOILS,
ALLOWING MORE TREES TO COME DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
THAN TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS, WITH PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
HIGH SURF WILL ALSO LEAD TO BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
IN FACT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE GOOD FOR RECOVERY EFFORTS, IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND A BIT HUMID, SO THE HEAT MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL TO SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS. THIS INCLUDES THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING DUE TO
POWER OUTAGES, WORKING OUTDOORS, ETC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS, WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OVER DHN AND
ECP SATURDAY, HOWEVER LINGERING SHRA/TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS OF 1 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA. ISAIAS HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 120 MPH AND WAS MOVING NNE AT 16 MPH. CURRENTLY MAKING A
NORTHWARD TURN, ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES, A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MEXICO BEACH TO THE OKALOOSA-WALTON
COUNTY LINE, AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS EAST MEXICO BEACH TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE VESSELS AND SEVERELY REDUCE VISIBILITY. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, ALTER COURSE, AND/OR SECURE THE VESSEL FOR
EXTREME CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY FOR
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES
THE REGION, WITH INCREASING WIND AND RAIN CHANGES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE FL BIG BEND, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. IF
REALIZED, THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREA.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, THE FL BIG BEND, AND EASTERN FL
BIG BEND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 80 68 83 / 100 90 40 0
PANAMA CITY 74 80 69 81 / 80 30 10 0
DOTHAN 66 81 62 81 / 100 40 20 0
ALBANY 67 81 65 80 / 100 90 50 0
VALDOSTA 71 82 70 82 / 100 90 70 20
CROSS CITY 74 85 74 85 / 80 80 80 40
APALACHICOLA 76 81 72 81 / 100 70 30 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-
108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ007>010-012-108-112.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ011-013>018-027-114-115-118-127-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114-
115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-
155>161.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALZ065-068.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ066-067-069.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page