088
WTUS82 KTAE 100322
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426-GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158-101130-
HURRICANE ISAIAS LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL092026
1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026 /1022 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**ISAIAS MOVING INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL BAY AND SOUTH WALTON
- A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WALTON, COFFEE,
GENEVA, HOLMES, INLAND BAY, NORTH WALTON, AND WASHINGTON
- A STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL GULF, COASTAL JEFFERSON, AND
COASTAL WAKULLA
- A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE AND
COASTAL TAYLOR
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAKER, CALHOUN,
CALHOUN, CLAY, COLQUITT, DALE, DECATUR, DOUGHERTY, EARLY,
GADSDEN, GRADY, HENRY, HOUSTON, INLAND FRANKLIN, INLAND GULF,
INLAND JEFFERSON, INLAND WAKULLA, JACKSON, LEE, LEON, MILLER,
MITCHELL, NORTHERN LIBERTY, QUITMAN, RANDOLPH, SEMINOLE,
SOUTHERN LIBERTY, TERRELL, THOMAS, AND WORTH
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY OR ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
- 30.8N 86.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 90 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
..DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FLOODING RAINS
AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY...
AT 11 PM ET, HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH WINDS OF 90 MPH AND MOVING N AT 20 MPH. ISAIAS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MOVE INTO ALABAMA. NOW INLAND, THE PEAK WINDS OF THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A CONSIDERABLY LARGE WIND
FIELD COMBINED WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION EAST OF THE TRACK WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE IMPACTS WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN IN A SAFE LOCATION UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL OF OUR PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST. LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION VALUES OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST EAST TO THE AUCILLA RIVER AND 2 TO 4 FEET FROM THE AUCILLA
RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. COASTAL SALTWATER FLOODING MAY LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
SOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL MAKE
MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE STORM.
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. SUCH VALUES WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY FROM THE ANTICIPATED RAIN.
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST AL &
SOUTHWEST GA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. REMAIN WELL SHELTERED FROM LIFE-THREATENING WIND
HAVING DEVASTATING IMPACTS. IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. REMAIN WELL SHELTERED FROM LIFE-
THREATENING WIND HAVING LIMITED TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS.
* SURGE:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN SURGE EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND COAST. REMAIN WELL AWAY
FROM LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IF
REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED BY
WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS BECOME
WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOW
SPOTS.
- MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. STRONG AND
NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
- MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.
SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. REMAIN WELL GUARDED AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING FLOOD
WATERS HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING IMPACTS. IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS,
AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND
BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE
ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF RAGING WATER
WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED
OR WASHED OUT.
* TORNADOES:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. REMAIN WELL BRACED AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO
EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IF
REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LISTEN FOR
UPDATES AND BE READY IN CASE YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. KEEP A
BATTERY- POWERED RADIO, CHARGED CELL PHONE AND FLASHLIGHT HANDY.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM BE READY TO MOVE QUICKLY. KEEP YOUR
SHOES ON AND RAIN GEAR HANDY. BOOTS AND ATHLETIC SHOES OFFER THE BEST
FOOT PROTECTION IF YOU BECOME UNEXPECTEDLY EXPOSED TO THE WEATHER.
KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE CHARGED AND IN POWER-SAVING MODE. IF YOU LOSE
POWER, USE IT SPARINGLY AND MAINLY FOR PERSONAL EMERGENCIES AND
CHECK-INS.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
SAFEST PLACE WITHIN YOUR SHELTER. PROTECT YOUR HEAD AND BODY.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 530 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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