257
FXUS62 KTAE 100521
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
121 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE ISAIAS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED. A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF OUTER BANDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER DUE TO AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE DETAILED BELOW:
1) FLOODING RAIN THREAT:
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF A
TRAINING N/S ORIENTED BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST. IF REALIZED, THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME
RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREA. HEED ANY FLOOD WARNINGS AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
4) STORM SURGE THREAT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FL PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST, WHERE THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A PEAK STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 9
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PANHANDLE TO GRAYTON BEACH. FROM GRAYTON BEACH TO INDIAN PASS 4 TO 7
FEET, FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER 4 TO 6 FT, AND 3 TO
5 FEET FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE GREATEST
SURGE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES.
PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS, INCLUDING ANY
EVACUATION ORDERS.
3) TORNADO THREAT:
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER AND TRAILING
RAIN BANDS. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS, SO ENSURE
THAT YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, INCLUDING THOSE
THAT WILL AWAKE YOU FROM SLEEP.
2) WIND THREAT:
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGE SIZE OF ISAIAS AS IT NEARS NORTHERN GULF
COAST, THE WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AN EXPECTED FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CORE OF THE STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LEAD TO SATURATED SOILS,
ALLOWING MORE TREES TO COME DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
THAN TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS, WITH PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
HIGH SURF WILL ALSO LEAD TO BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
IN FACT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE GOOD FOR RECOVERY EFFORTS, IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND A BIT HUMID, SO THE HEAT MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL TO SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS. THIS INCLUDES THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING DUE TO
POWER OUTAGES, WORKING OUTDOORS, ETC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR AND LIFR AROUND THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS AND ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS. WINDS VARY
BETWEEN TAF SITES AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25-40 KTS, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS IN RANBANDS. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE S LATE TONIGHT
AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES
PUSHING INLAND. WINDS LOOSEN BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE BUT
LINGERING CIGS COULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS AROUND MVFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF
THESE CEILINGS. SHRA CHANCES PERSIST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN- MOST SITES WHEREAS ECP AND DHN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR FROM RAIN BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS OF 1 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA. ISAIAS HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 120 MPH AND WAS MOVING NNE AT 16 MPH. CURRENTLY MAKING A
NORTHWARD TURN, ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES, A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MEXICO BEACH TO THE OKALOOSA-WALTON
COUNTY LINE, AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS EAST MEXICO BEACH TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE VESSELS AND SEVERELY REDUCE VISIBILITY. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, ALTER COURSE, AND/OR SECURE THE VESSEL FOR
EXTREME CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY FOR
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES
THE REGION, WITH INCREASING WIND AND RAIN CHANGES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE FL BIG BEND, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. IF
REALIZED, THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREA.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, THE FL BIG BEND, AND EASTERN FL
BIG BEND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
PANAMA CITY MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
DOTHAN MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
ALBANY MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
VALDOSTA MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
CROSS CITY MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
APALACHICOLA MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BSM
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