485
FXUS62 KTAE 101343
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 937 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS PULLING AWAY. TRAILING RAINBANDS
COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
NEAR I-75 AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND TODAY.
- ROUGH BEACH CONDITIONS AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. THERE REMAINS A TRAILING
BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND AND ALONG
I-75 IN GEORGIA. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE REALIZED IN THESE SHALLOW
STORMS, AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE CONTINUED PONDING
IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND VERY
QUICKLY FILL THANKS TO VERY STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
AND TORNADO THREAT HAS SUBSIDED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY WANES AND DRY AIR MOVES IN.
HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAILING CONVERGENT
BAND TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTH GEORGIA. WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF IT ENDS UP TRAINING. THUS,
WE'LL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THE TORNADO RISK IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SAME LOCATION
IS ALSO UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRAINING CONVECTION.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, IN AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY ISAIAS, DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY, PROVIDING RESIDENTS AND RESPONDERS GOOD
WEATHER TO BEGIN RECOVERY EFFORTS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
A BIT MORE. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN RESIDUAL RAINBANDS THAT
LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER TSRA WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND TODAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CIGS/VIS
OVERNIGHT. VFR MAY WIN OUT AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO, THE HIGHER THE RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOMING MORE MODERATE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH 3-5 FOOT SEAS BY THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENTLE BREEZES EXPECTED
AND SEAS AROUND 1-2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND
INTO THE I-75 COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, STRONG SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CONTINUE TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN TURNER, BEN HILL, AND
IRWIN COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES AW ABOUT 1.5-3 INCHES OF
RAIN ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE BIG BEND NEAR 5
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAIAS
WITH WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 12-14 INCHES.
RESIDUAL STANDING WATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE AREAS THAT GOT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE EASTERN FL BIG
BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH GEORGIA WHERE A TRAILING
CONVERGENT RAIN BAND MAY SET UP. GIVEN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING, HIGH RAIN RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
IF TRAINING OCCURS.
ON THE RIVERS, MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
PEA, SHOAL, LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE, OCHLOCKONEE, AND ST. MARKS
RIVERS. FOR THE PEA AND SHOAL, WE ARE SEEING THE RAPID RISES FROM
THE LOCAL BASIN CONTRIBUTION, BUT THERE IS STILL WATER TO BE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM, WHICH MAKES SOME OF THESE FORECASTS A BIT
TRICKIER. THE ST. MARKS ALSO HAD A SURGE COMPONENT AS WELL AS A
RAIN COMPONENT. THEN THE OTHER RIVERS ARE MOSTLY ROUTED FLOW
FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RIVERS SHOULD CREST IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS,
THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
ALONG THE COAST, THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 65 83 63 / 70 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 79 68 81 67 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 80 60 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 82 63 80 62 / 70 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 81 67 82 62 / 90 70 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 72 85 63 / 90 90 10 0
APALACHICOLA 81 70 81 68 / 40 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>015-018-019-028-029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-
134-326-426.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114-
115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ125>131-145>148-
155-158>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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