538
FXUS62 KTAE 101926
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- ALL TROPICAL CONCERNS FOR OUR CWA HAVE ENDED.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND OVER
THE APALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PWATS LOW, BELOW 1", RESULTING TO LITTLE
TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FETCH OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
GULF TO I-75 OF SOUTHERN GA. SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT VLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BAND MOVES SLOWLY EAST. SHRA MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND TLH AS WELL. CIGS WISE, BETWEEN 015-030 WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, VARYING BETWEEN SCT-BKN. SUNDAY
MORNING, DRYING MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PUSH
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTER OUT LOW CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING
THEN CLOCK TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECREASE TO BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AND SEAS FALL TO 3-4
FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE BREEZES EARLY IN THE MORNING, REDUCING TO LIGHT BREEZES
THROUGH THE DAY, AND 2-3 FOOT SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MODERATE DISPERSIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR I-75
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE WILL HAVE BREEZY WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS AT AROUND 15-20 MPH. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES AT ABOUT 1.5-3 INCHES OF
RAIN ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE BIG BEND NEAR 5
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAIAS
WITH WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 12-14 INCHES.
RESIDUAL STANDING WATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE AREAS THAT GOT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN FL BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH GEORGIA WHERE
A TRAILING CONVERGENT RAIN BAND HAS SET UP. GIVEN SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING, HIGH RAIN RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS TRAINING OCCURS.
ON THE RIVERS, MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
PEA, SHOAL, LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE, OCHLOCKONEE, AND ST. MARKS
RIVERS. FOR THE PEA AND SHOAL, WE ARE SEEING THE RAPID RISES FROM
THE LOCAL BASIN CONTRIBUTION, BUT THERE IS STILL WATER TO BE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM, WHICH MAKES SOME OF THESE FORECASTS A BIT
TRICKIER. THE ST. MARKS ALSO HAD A SURGE COMPONENT AS WELL AS A
RAIN COMPONENT. THEN THE OTHER RIVERS ARE MOSTLY ROUTED FLOW
FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RIVERS SHOULD CREST IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS,
THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 83 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 82 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 80 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 67 82 63 86 / 50 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 73 85 64 86 / 60 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 82 68 84 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ018-019-028-029-
034-118-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ129>131-147-148-
159>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page