813
FXUS62 KTAE 110131
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. A N-S-
ORIENTED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD MOVING FROM APALACHEE
BAY THROUGH THE SE FL BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR. WEST TO NW
WINDS FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY USHERS IN LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TOWARDS THE ACF BASIN. THIS
DRY-AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND OVER
THE APALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PWATS LOW, BELOW 1", RESULTING TO LITTLE
TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOME SHRA MAY
SNEAK INTO VLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR AT VLD LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT DHN WITH WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF ISAIAS'S REMNANT CIRCULATION. LIGHT W/SW CONTINUE TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECREASE TO BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT AND SEAS FALL TO 3-4
FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE BREEZES EARLY IN THE MORNING, REDUCING TO LIGHT BREEZES
THROUGH THE DAY, AND 2-3 FOOT SEAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MODERATE DISPERSIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR I-75
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE WILL HAVE BREEZY WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS AT AROUND 15-20 MPH. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES AT ABOUT 1.5-3 INCHES OF
RAIN ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE BIG BEND NEAR 5
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAIAS
WITH WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 12-14 INCHES.
RESIDUAL STANDING WATER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE AREAS THAT GOT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN FL BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH GEORGIA WHERE
A TRAILING CONVERGENT RAIN BAND HAS SET UP. GIVEN SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINING, HIGH RAIN RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS TRAINING OCCURS.
ON THE RIVERS, MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
PEA, SHOAL, LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE, OCHLOCKONEE, AND ST. MARKS
RIVERS. FOR THE PEA AND SHOAL, WE ARE SEEING THE RAPID RISES FROM
THE LOCAL BASIN CONTRIBUTION, BUT THERE IS STILL WATER TO BE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM, WHICH MAKES SOME OF THESE FORECASTS A BIT
TRICKIER. THE ST. MARKS ALSO HAD A SURGE COMPONENT AS WELL AS A
RAIN COMPONENT. THEN THE OTHER RIVERS ARE MOSTLY ROUTED FLOW
FORECASTS. MOST OF THE RIVERS SHOULD CREST IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS,
THEN BEGIN TO FALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 83 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 82 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 80 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 67 82 63 86 / 40 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 73 85 64 86 / 70 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 82 68 84 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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