316
FXUS62 KTAE 110631
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND OVER
THE APALACHIANS THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PWATS LOW, BELOW 1", RESULTING TO LITTLE
TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH A MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS (LOWER DEW POINTS) IS
ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 020-050 RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF A TLH-ABY LINE. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW WEAK LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR VLD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE AND IS ALREADY ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THE
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT, CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER AFTERNOON CUMULUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES, AND 2-3
FOOT SEAS. GENTLE TO GENTLE BREEZES CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MODERATE DISPERSIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR I-75
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL HAVE BREEZY WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS AT AROUND 15-20 MPH. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES RECEIVED ABOUT 1.5-3 INCHES
OF RAIN ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE BIG BEND NEAR 5
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAIAS
WITH WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 12-14 INCHES.
RESIDUAL STANDING WATER FLOODING MAY CONTINUE IN THE AREAS THAT
GOT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE LAST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
POST-TC ISAIAS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND/GA I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING.
ON THE RIVERS:
- FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PEA AT ELBA AND SAINT MARKS NEAR NEWPORT
WERE CANCELLED.
- FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SHOAL NEAR MOSSY HEAD (MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED), PEA NEAR ARITON, OCHLOCKONEE NEAR
THOMASVILLE, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT CARYVILLE AND GENEVA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 82 67 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 82 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 80 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 64 86 63 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 82 68 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY/LF
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY/LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY/LF
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY/LF
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY/LF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page