546
FXUS62 KTAE 111911
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, AND SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY
AND WARM. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND LESS; KEEPING OUR
RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
MORE SPECIFICS; BUT IT MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE
CHANGING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WHILE CLOCKING TO NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH, THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID-
LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL AT 1 TO 2 FEET. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, WHICH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER OUR MARINE ZONES.
WE WILL MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL MARINE ADVISORIES AS
THE PATTERN CHANGE DRAWS CLOSER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE 40%S.
BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY (15-20 MPH) WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN (5-10 MPH)
AND VARY BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR DISTRICTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'VE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
THERE ARE RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ONGOING.
THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD IS EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT GENEVA CAN EXPECT MINOR
FLOODING BEGINNING MONDAY. AND AT CARYVILLE, MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE IS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO FLOOD STAGE SOON AFTER.
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FOR FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED:
- THE PEA RIVER NEAR ARITON AND AT ELBA
- THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR THOMASVILLE
- ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 87 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 60 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 64 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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