013
FXUS62 KTAE 112305
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
705 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 704 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, AND SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY
AND WARM. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND LESS; KEEPING OUR
RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
MORE SPECIFICS; BUT IT MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE
CHANGING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W TO NW WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH, THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID-
LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL AT 1 TO 2 FEET. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, WHICH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER OUR MARINE ZONES.
WE WILL MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL MARINE ADVISORIES AS
THE PATTERN CHANGE DRAWS CLOSER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE 40%S.
BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY (15-20 MPH) WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN (5-10 MPH)
AND VARY BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR DISTRICTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'VE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
THERE ARE RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ONGOING.
THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD IS EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT GENEVA CAN EXPECT MINOR
FLOODING BEGINNING MONDAY. AND AT CARYVILLE, MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE IS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO FLOOD STAGE SOON AFTER.
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FOR FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED:
- THE PEA RIVER NEAR ARITON AND AT ELBA
- THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR THOMASVILLE
- ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 82 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 82 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 81 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 64 87 63 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 82 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page