992
FXUS62 KTAE 120631
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK,
AND SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY AND
WARM. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND LESS; KEEPING OUR RAIN
CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO; CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND MORE SPECIFICS;
BUT IT MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY, SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
CLOSE TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED VCFG FOR JUST A FEW
HOURS AT DHN AND ABY. ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH, THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL AT 1
TO 2 FEET. BY NEXT WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
WHICH WILL CLOCK WINDS AROUND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINRH VALUES
IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S BOTH DAYS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS TODAY WILL LESSEN BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING
TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR DISTRICTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'VE HAD IN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THERE ARE RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ONGOING. A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT GENEVA, WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST TONIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE OBSERVED/FORECAST IN ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 87 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 86 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 86 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 63 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 85 67 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY/LF
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY/LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY/LF
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY/LF
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY/LF
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