029
FXUS62 KTBW 150045
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT AN UPTICK IN OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
POPS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE (15-20 PERCENT),
WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING A SHOWER ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-4, FAVORING THE MID TO LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND LATE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIOD CLOSER TO I-4,
INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AS WELL, HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, DIMINISHING CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ADVECT IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-4 AND SWFL BEFORE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THOSE AREAS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH PERHAPS IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL AND FAR SWFL
LOCATIONS AROUND 60.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S. AVERAGE
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FROM I-4 SOUTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS
THEY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN SWEEPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT,
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, TO AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR SWFL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND, CENTERING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME,
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWATS FALLING TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS
SWFL. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ALIKE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS A MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. PWATS BETWEEN 0.75-1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REBOUND DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS WE MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AS TROPICAL STORM SARA, CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, HUGS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST
LINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE MUCH
FURTHER. THE STORM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACTS THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON FLORIDA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A
RATHER RAINY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. WITH THE DEGREE OF LAND
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE LONGER TERM, IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT A STRONG
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL THREATEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. REGARDLESS,
WEAK SYSTEMS CAN STILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH, SO REMAIN
VIGILANT AND KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS OVER NEXT 12-18 HOURS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH REDUCED CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
TIMING FAVORS MID-LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
GENERALLY SPANNING 08-15Z ACROSS TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ. WINDS MAINLY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO, SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FROPA FOLLOWED
BY RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES
SETTLE IN ACROSS TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RELAX SOME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 80 59 80 / 20 0 0 0
FMY 70 85 61 83 / 0 10 0 0
GIF 68 80 58 81 / 20 10 0 0
SRQ 71 82 60 82 / 20 20 0 0
BKV 62 78 52 79 / 20 0 0 0
SPG 72 80 64 79 / 20 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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