566
FXUS62 KTBW 151134
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
634 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS TO THE AREA. IMPACTS SHOULD CLEAR THE
NORTHERN SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN IMPACT SWFL LATER
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY AND BECOME LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. PUMPS UP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL
DIG OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE BASE OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND WILL CUT-OFF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
BRIEF SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDES OVER THE
CUT-OFF...TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM ON
TUESDAY WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG U/L
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AS THE
EVOLUTION/POSITIONING OF BOTH THE TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL LIKELY
PLAY A KEY ROLE ON STEERING WHATEVER REMNANT ENERGY/DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM SARA.
BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST OF THE STORM DISSIPATING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WHATEVER
REMNANT ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY, AND MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE U/L RIDGE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT WEST CENTRAL AND/OR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS CAN STILL PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER/TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST TROUGH WITH MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 85 61 83 63 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 82 58 82 60 / 20 0 0 0
SRQ 83 59 82 62 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 80 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 64 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...ADAVIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...FLANNERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page