466
FXUS62 KTBW 151948
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
HAS CLEARED OUR AREA AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING RECORDED A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL, BUT THE FRONT HAD MOSTLY WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT
GOT TO SWFL WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BEHIND THE
FRONT, CLEAR SKIES, NORTHERLY WINDS, AND COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER
HAS SETTLED IN. A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SWFL, BUT THESE WILL
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS IN. THE
MODIFIED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY, ONLY REACHING
TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, LOWS TONIGHT
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DIP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. PWATS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.5-1
INCH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50% RANGE. HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER 80S, BUT BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL TICK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WILL REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WITH DRY AIR SOLIDLY IN PLACE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING. WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE STORM
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN. ONCE WHAT IS LEFT OF SARA MOVES INTO THE
GULF, THE CLOSED LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND
BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE APPROACHES FLORIDA. INSTEAD, THE
ENERGY FROM WHAT'S LEFT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND MAY POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY. SPECIFIC TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE
A BIT HAZY THIS FAR OUT YET BUT THE SETUP WILL WARRANT MONITORING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHERLY FOR ALL SITES. LOOK FOR BREEZY, NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SCEC WILL
BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. WORSENING WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS REMNANT ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA MOVES OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
DRIER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN SO, RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 60 80 62 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 85 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 58 81 61 / 20 0 0 0
SRQ 83 59 82 62 / 30 0 0 0
BKV 80 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 64 80 67 / 10 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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