715
FXUS62 KTBW 161420
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
920 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. VERY DRY
AIR REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA KEEPING DEWPOINT RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND PWS AROUND 0.8 IN. THIS WILL KEEP SUNNY
SKIES AND THE PERFECT CONDITIONS TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES USHERED IN BY YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SHOULD BE A
WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THE LONG STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
SITUATE OVER THE STATE AND REMAIN THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, HOWEVER THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
THINGS GET SHAKEN UP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM SARA MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH
ALSO MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS FL. SARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER
ITS INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REFORM. THE
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM SARA WILL BE PUSHED TOWARDS FL AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND 50S FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 81 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 82 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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