637
FXUS62 KTBW 181118
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
618 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
HOLDING TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TREK THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, DRAGGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
IN THE WARM SECTOR, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS AS WELL.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILL INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR, AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S NORTH, TO LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE NATURE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 50
FMY 84 65 86 70 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 84 63 86 69 / 0 0 0 40
SRQ 84 66 84 71 / 0 0 0 40
BKV 83 59 84 67 / 0 0 0 60
SPG 82 70 82 73 / 0 0 0 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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