671
FXUS62 KTBW 191946
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE STATE. RATHER STOUT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AROUND
10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. ONE MORE DAY OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AS MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER STREAM
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM SARA
DOWN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT LEADING
TO RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE I-
4 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND FINALLY IMPACTING
SWFL BY AROUND DAY-BREAK. OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY, HOWEVER 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL REACH
BETWEEN 150-250 INDICATING AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT WILL BE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL WITH MANY SEEING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH AND ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN US WILL DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US, USHERING IN SOME
OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S, ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE
50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DRY AIR MEANS NO RAIN CHANCES AND
BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH OUR BEAUTIFUL FALL-LIKE WEATHER.
HOPEFULLY YOU'RE ABLE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER 07Z AS RAIN AND STORMS MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VCSH WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA TODAY WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCEC OFFSHORE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOME HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 81 58 69 / 50 50 0 0
FMY 71 82 63 73 / 10 50 0 0
GIF 70 83 57 69 / 40 60 0 0
SRQ 73 81 61 70 / 30 50 0 0
BKV 68 81 52 67 / 60 50 0 0
SPG 73 81 62 69 / 50 50 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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