090
FXUS62 KTBW 151521
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1021 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE DAY IS OFF TO A QUIET START. MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LAST NIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THAT MOISTURE
IN THE 1000MB TO 700MB LAYER. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO STILL BE SPRINKLES, PERHAPS EVEN A
SHOWER, WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY CONTINUES. THUS, KEEPING
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, THOUGH, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PERSISTENCE IS THE
THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND RIDGES DOWN THE E SEABOARD INTO THE STATE. THIS SETUP
FAVORS CONTINUED BREEZY E-NE LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE
E U.S. DURING THAT TIME, SHUNTING THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE W
ATLANTIC, ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK DESPITE THE HIGH BEING DISPLACED. BY WED-THU A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE E-SE U.S., WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND COOLER TEMPS FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGHS
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THU-FRI, WITH LOWS DROPPING FROM
THE 60S OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. AN EVEN MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SE ACROSS THE E U.S. ON FRI-SAT DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A
FRESH SUPPLY OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE STATE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS INTO THE 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME MVFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING. ANY IMPACTS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE BRIEF, WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE DAY TO SUPPORT SOME
SPRINKLES. WITH THESE SPRINKLES, SHORT-LIVED POCKETS OF MVFR COULD
ALSO BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10%,
SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A BREEZE ENE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DURING EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL, HOWEVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
GUSTY E-NE WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. DRIER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
BREEZY E-NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING ELEVATED
DISPERSIONS INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN COMFORTABLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 62 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 64 83 67 / 10 0 10 10
GIF 81 63 83 66 / 10 0 10 10
SRQ 81 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 81 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 78 64 79 66 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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