379
FXUS62 KTBW 151752
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1252 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE DAY IS OFF TO A QUIET START. MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LAST NIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THAT MOISTURE
IN THE 1000MB TO 700MB LAYER. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT NOW, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO STILL BE SPRINKLES, PERHAPS EVEN A
SHOWER, WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY CONTINUES. THUS, KEEPING
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, THOUGH, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PERSISTENCE IS THE
THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
WITH AN ENE FLOW, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY, CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SWFL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 10%
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO OCCUR WITH THESE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
IF THEY MOVE OVER A TERMINAL. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND SOME DRYING OCCURS.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE REBOUNDS TOMORROW, SUGGESTING A SIMILAR SETUP
COULD OCCUR AGAIN, AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 64 83 67 83 / 0 10 10 30
GIF 63 83 66 83 / 0 10 10 40
SRQ 62 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 20
BKV 55 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 20
SPG 64 79 66 78 / 0 0 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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