824
FXUS62 KTBW 160000
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
700 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 70H WILL CREATE THE RISK FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
UPPER-LEVEL RIDING REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE SE IS
RELATIVELY FLAT, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH,
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SETUP
MAINTAINS THE FAVORING OF THE STATUS QUO.
A BREEZY ENE FLOW CONTINUES WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT IN PLACE. WITH
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION, DAYTIME INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH SHOW QUICK-PASSING SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS. WHILE
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A POCKET OF DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN TONIGHT, THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. WHILE A LOT OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE
SHOULDN'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION, THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE
HARD TO IGNORE. WHILE IMPACTS REMAIN LIMITED, HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO AROUND 20% ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY, WITH MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING AND ALONG THE
COAST. THE SETUP REMAINS FAVORABLE, AND PERSISTENCE IS A USEFUL
TOOL IN THIS SETUP.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
ARRIVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN ARE FAVORED AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS THEN FAVORED TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER SECONDARY FRONT THEN LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
REINFORCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. WHILE COOLER,
THE OVERALL SETUP LOOKS QUITE NICE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE SKC TONIGHT WITH SCT 035-045
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
A BREEZY ENE FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING A
MODERATE TO CHOPPY SEA STATE WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. BY MID-WEEK, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FAVORED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 81 65 82 / 0 20 0 20
FMY 65 83 67 83 / 0 20 10 30
GIF 63 82 67 84 / 0 20 10 40
SRQ 63 82 66 83 / 0 10 0 20
BKV 56 81 59 83 / 0 20 0 20
SPG 65 79 67 79 / 0 10 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...ADAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADAVIS
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