488
FXUS62 KTBW 160910
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
CONTINUED SETUP OF RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING DOWN THE E SEABOARD INTO THE STATE.
BREEZY E-NE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA GIVEN
THE SETUP ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
OR SHOWERS AS WESTWARD ADVECTION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. HEIGHTENED LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS EXISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS
PW VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER
THE NATURE COAST ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND SOME SOUTHERN
AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCES EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE E U.S. AROUND MID WEEK DISPLACING THE
CURRENT RIDGE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP
ACROSS THE E U.S., WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PRECEDED BY THE CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN
INCH FOR FEW LOCATIONS, BEFORE DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS FILTER
INTO THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE E U.S.
IN THE WAKE OF A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S,
AND LOWS INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBY
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT APPROACHING SUNRISE FOR LAL, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AS OF THIS CYCLE. MORE NOTABLE GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR SUB-
VFR CIG/VSBY POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS TPA/PIE/LAL WITH LESSER SIGNAL FOR REMAINING TERMINALS.
A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY INTERIOR WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR LAL, BUT LIKELY LOW
IMPACT ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION THIS CYCLE. E-NE WINDS 5-8 KNOTS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INCREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
GUSTY E-NE WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS, WITH A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
BREEZY E-NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 66 81 66 / 10 0 30 20
FMY 83 67 83 67 / 10 10 40 30
GIF 83 67 84 67 / 20 10 50 30
SRQ 82 66 83 65 / 10 0 30 30
BKV 83 60 83 61 / 10 0 30 20
SPG 78 67 78 66 / 10 0 30 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HURT
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...WYNN
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