964
FXUS62 KTBW 170017
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
717 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BROAD EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT L/L MOISTURE IS
CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES INLAND, HOWEVER, A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ADVECT OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NATURE COAST,
LIFTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SURFACE RIDGING COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID TODAY AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NATURE COAST, HOWEVER CENTRAL FL AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH COULD
ALSO BE IMPACTED. EXTRA MOISTURE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR AREAS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER
AIR OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY VCNTY
LAL/PGD. VFR CIGS 030-040 EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON TUESDAY,
WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS 020-025 MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
GUSTY E-NE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGS EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DRY AIR RETURNS BY THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY N-NE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
GUSTY E-NE WINDS CONTINUE, BUT RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 82 66 79 / 10 40 30 40
FMY 67 83 67 81 / 10 50 30 40
GIF 67 84 68 82 / 10 50 30 50
SRQ 66 83 66 78 / 10 40 30 30
BKV 61 83 62 81 / 10 40 20 40
SPG 67 78 67 76 / 10 40 30 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
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