335
FXUS62 KTBW 170835
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
E-W ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXES REMAIN JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER S GA/AL/MS AND THE PANHANDLE. EASTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES IN THIS SETUP ADVECTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWER CHANCES THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM OR TWO GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE N GULF REGION BY
THURSDAY WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
TEMPS AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER
OCCASIONALY BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
DROPPING THROUGH THE 70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE 60S
FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, DROPPING INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THE 30S AND
40S FOR THE WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH TOTAL EXPECTED
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALONG THE
COAST, TO UP TO AROUND AN INCH TOWARD THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
REASONING FROM PREVIOUS CYCLE REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS TERMINALS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY
MIXING OUT THROUGH MID MORNING, ALTHOUGH A FEW TEMPO MVFR CIGS
MAY PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING.
ALSO CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH ACROSS TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND MENTION IN
SUBSEQUENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED GIVEN GUIDANCE
PERSISTENCE. E-NE WINDS EXPECTED, 5-10 KNOTS LATE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS, INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY E-NE FLOW CONTINUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AROUND MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT N-NW AND INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH OCCASIONAL CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED AS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND FEATURING
AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF W FL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 67 80 65 / 40 20 40 40
FMY 83 68 81 66 / 50 30 40 40
GIF 84 68 83 66 / 40 20 60 50
SRQ 83 66 80 65 / 40 30 30 40
BKV 83 63 81 60 / 30 20 40 40
SPG 79 67 77 66 / 40 30 40 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HURT
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...WYNN
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