742
FXUS62 KTBW 171921
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO GIVE US STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.25 WHICH DURING
THE SUMMER IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT LOOKING AT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TODAY THAT PUTS IT ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE. THIS COMBINATION IS
CREATING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THAT ARE STARTING
TO PUSH WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REPEAT TOMORROW AS HIGHS
BOTH DAYS APPROACH THE MID 80'S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60'S AND LOWS IN THE 40'S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE AS
WINDS START TO CALM DOWN. HIGHS WILL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70'S
BY CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINAL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSS OVER FROM
THE EAST COAST. AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY AS THEY PUSH OFF LAND. BY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. A SECONDARY FOLD FRONT WILL THROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BUT WILL CAUSE THEM TO
INCREASE. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THAT SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTIER WINDS AND
DROPPING RH EVEN FARTHER DOWN. HOWEVER WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 67 80 65 / 40 20 30 40
FMY 83 67 83 67 / 40 20 40 50
GIF 84 65 82 67 / 40 10 60 50
SRQ 83 66 79 65 / 40 20 30 40
BKV 83 64 82 60 / 40 10 40 40
SPG 79 67 77 66 / 40 20 30 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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