445
FXUS62 KTBW 180017
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
717 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SUFFICIENT L/L MOISTURE BELOW A WEAK MID LEVEL HAS AGAIN ALLOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW EVENING SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND FOR LOW
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER
WARM DECEMBER DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO GIVE US STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.25 WHICH DURING
THE SUMMER IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT LOOKING AT CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TODAY THAT PUTS IT ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE. THIS COMBINATION IS
CREATING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THAT ARE STARTING
TO PUSH WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REPEAT TOMORROW AS HIGHS
BOTH DAYS APPROACH THE MID 80'S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60'S AND LOWS IN THE 40'S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE AS
WINDS START TO CALM DOWN. HIGHS WILL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70'S
BY CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LCL BKN
040-050 VCNTY ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 012, WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS 006-008 AND MAY IMPACT
ALL TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. ALSO, PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT LAL/PGD...BUT COULD
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND 020 AS CLOUD
BASES LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY AS THEY PUSH OFF LAND. BY THURSDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. A SECONDARY FOLD FRONT WILL THROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BUT WILL CAUSE THEM TO
INCREASE. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THAT SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTIER WINDS AND
DROPPING RH EVEN FARTHER DOWN. HOWEVER WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 80 65 77 / 20 30 40 10
FMY 67 83 67 81 / 20 40 50 20
GIF 65 82 67 81 / 10 60 50 20
SRQ 66 79 65 78 / 20 30 40 10
BKV 64 82 60 78 / 10 40 40 10
SPG 67 77 66 74 / 20 30 40 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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