723
FXUS62 KTBW 181749
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1249 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
PREVIOUS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF INTO MID DAY
WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LEVY COUNTY EXPIRING AT 10 AM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SE/SSE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND S/SW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4.
THE 12Z TPA SOUNDING SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE NORMAL
AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE 90 PERCENTILE FOR
TODAYS DATE. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS RANGING FROM
30-35 PERCENT ACROSS POLK/HIGHLANDS TO 20 PERCENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND ARE FORECAST MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT HAVING SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS
SE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND FL ON THURSDAY
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND THE E SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIVING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND TREKS EASTWARD INTO MID WEEK.
LOCAL AREA CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS TODAY, WITH
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IMPROVING BY
LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD EAST OF I-75 AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY MID WEEK. MILD LOWS IN THE 60S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON FRIDAY AND
THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN WARM BACK INTO THE 50S BY
MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNSET
WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA MAINLY IN THE KLAL VCNTY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CIGS VSBYS INTO THE LIFR
RANGE MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. LIFTING CIGS AND IMPROVING
VSBYS EXPECTED 14Z-16Z THU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
UPDATE...EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NW 5-10 KNOTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MID MORNING UPDATE FOR THE CWF.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHERLY TONIGHT, REMAINING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS, HOWEVER, ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE A COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IS FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS AND MOISTURE BEGIN MODERATING
AND RECOVERING OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 66 77 61 / 20 30 10 0
FMY 84 66 81 62 / 20 20 10 0
GIF 85 66 82 61 / 30 40 20 0
SRQ 81 65 78 62 / 10 30 10 0
BKV 84 60 79 54 / 20 30 10 0
SPG 78 66 74 62 / 20 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...VOLKMER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
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