727
FXUS62 KTBW 182340
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
640 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A WARM MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE AREA PRODUCING NEW
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. DUE TO THE THIS WARM MOIST AIR WE CAN EXPECT A REPEAT OF
CONDITIONS WE SAW THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FOG AND LOW CEILING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND HELP TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR FOR OUR
FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE BIGGER COOL DOWN WILL BE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 60'S WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW 40'S FOR MOST EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST
WHICH WILL SEE THE MID TO UPPER 30'S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO MODERATE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70'S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS ALREADY A CLOUD AND/OR FOG BANK ADVECTING ONSHORE, WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT AREA
AIRPORTS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP, THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE WORST IMPACTS LIKELY FROM 9Z TO 13Z AT
MOST AIRPORTS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS TAKING MUCH OF THE
DAY. BETTER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WARM AND MOST AIR UNDER A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE US
AROUND A 75 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE SOME SEA FOG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF OUR MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. THIS SEA FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOW DOWN TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AIR. THIS
WILL BRING US SOME DRIER FOR FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH WILL DROP OUR RHS EVEN MORE. HOWEVER,
WE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 77 61 72 / 20 10 10 0
FMY 65 81 62 76 / 20 10 0 0
GIF 63 80 61 77 / 30 10 0 0
SRQ 63 76 62 73 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 61 78 54 72 / 20 10 0 0
SPG 65 75 62 70 / 20 10 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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