074
FXUS62 KTBW 190148
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
AFTER APPEARING TO BE LOW CLOUDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OFF THE
WATER'S SURFACE ALL DAY, CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL WATERS NOW APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ACTUAL FOG, AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT FOR FOG TO PERSIST; AND WITH A LIGHT NW WIND, IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND. EVEN IF THIS MARINE FOG LAYER DOESN'T
MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND, RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 9AM.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW LOOKS TO DO SO SLOWLY,
SUGGESTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FOG
LINGERING BEYOND 9AM, BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS BY THAT
TIME. THOSE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MIX UP, BUT GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY'S PROXIMITY, MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH FOG OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS ALREADY A CLOUD AND/OR FOG BANK ADVECTING ONSHORE, WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT AREA
AIRPORTS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP, THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE WORST IMPACTS LIKELY FROM 9Z TO 13Z AT
MOST AIRPORTS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS TAKING MUCH OF THE
DAY. BETTER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SEA FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW 1NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH, A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS SEA FOG WILL LINGER OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
IMPROVING NEARSHORE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS, BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 64 77 61 / 10 20 10 10
FMY 83 65 81 62 / 20 20 10 0
GIF 84 63 80 61 / 30 30 10 0
SRQ 80 63 76 62 / 10 20 10 10
BKV 83 61 78 54 / 10 20 10 0
SPG 77 65 75 62 / 10 20 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...FLANNERY
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