804
FXUS62 KTBW 190903
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
..DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
..MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN U.S./N GULF THIS MORNING IS
ACCOMPANIED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
STATE WITH LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
LED TO FAVORABLE FOG CONDITIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD FOG IN PLACE
ACROSS W FL AND THE ADJACENT E GULF WATERS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING, PENDING ANY NECESSARY
EXTENSIONS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE, INITIALLY OVER
LAND AREAS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE FOLLOWING SUIT OVER MARINE ZONES
LATER IN THE DAY PARTICULARLY AFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS MAY
REMAIN IN THE SOUP A LITTLE LONGER AS LIGHT NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SOME OF THE SEA FOG ASHORE, BUT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE
FOG AND CLOUD COVER EARLY AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE STATE, CLEARING SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-4.
DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING INTO THE AREA LATER DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPOTTY MIST
OR FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PLEASANT BUT COOLER DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND A HALF-INCH OR
LOWER ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY, AND DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AND 40S. MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SOUTH, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS,
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH, WITH A BIT
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE E SEABOARD AND SE
U.S. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT ACROSS TERMINALS LINGERING THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. WORST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR GENERALLY WITHIN THE 08-14Z
WINDOW AT MOST TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SEA FOG IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE, AND A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM, PENDING ANY NECESSARY
EXTENSIONS. SEA FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPROVING ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AFTER SUNRISE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ANY VISIBILITY CONCERNS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS, WHICH
MAY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN SOME MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM, PENDING ANY NECESSARY EXTENSIONS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED FOG
THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR FRIDAY MORNING BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AND REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF
COOLER DRIER AIR BEFORE TEMPS AND MOISTURE BEGIN MODERATING AND
RECOVERING OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 61 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 62 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 61 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 79 61 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 79 54 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 75 63 70 51 / 0 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
HURT
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