688
FXUS62 KTBW 191516
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1016 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOSTLY LIFTED,
THOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS STILL SHOW SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS BUT EXPECTING TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH A MAINLY RAIN-FREE PASSAGE BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN U.S./N GULF THIS MORNING IS
ACCOMPANIED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
STATE WITH LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
LED TO FAVORABLE FOG CONDITIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD FOG IN PLACE
ACROSS W FL AND THE ADJACENT E GULF WATERS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING, PENDING ANY NECESSARY
EXTENSIONS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE, INITIALLY OVER
LAND AREAS AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE FOLLOWING SUIT OVER MARINE ZONES
LATER IN THE DAY PARTICULARLY AFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS MAY
REMAIN IN THE SOUP A LITTLE LONGER AS LIGHT NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SOME OF THE SEA FOG ASHORE, BUT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE
FOG AND CLOUD COVER EARLY AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE STATE, CLEARING SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-4.
DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING INTO THE AREA LATER DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPOTTY MIST
OR FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PLEASANT BUT COOLER DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH
TO MID 70S SOUTH.
COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND A HALF-INCH OR
LOWER ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY, AND DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AND 40S. MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SOUTH, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS,
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH, WITH A BIT
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE E SEABOARD AND SE
U.S. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS DENSE FOG BLANKETS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND 15Z TO FULLY SCATTER OUT, THOUGH CIG
RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE NNW BY THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS TODAY. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SEA FOG IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE, AND A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM, PENDING ANY NECESSARY
EXTENSIONS. SEA FOG WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPROVING ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AFTER SUNRISE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ANY VISIBILITY CONCERNS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS, WHICH
MAY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN SOME MARINE ZONES ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
WIDESPREAD FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM, PENDING ANY NECESSARY EXTENSIONS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED FOG
THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR FRIDAY MORNING BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AND REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF
COOLER DRIER AIR BEFORE TEMPS AND MOISTURE BEGIN MODERATING AND
RECOVERING OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 61 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 62 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 61 77 45 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 79 61 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 79 54 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 75 63 70 51 / 0 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...ADAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADAVIS
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