007
FXUS62 KTBW 192347
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
647 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MOSTLY A RAIN-FREE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE INCOMING DRIER AIR MAY ONLY DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF FOG
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
DUE TO THE MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BEING SCOURED OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND WIND SPEEDS ALSO LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT A COMBINATION OF SEA AND LAND FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.
WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TONIGHT, COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
BOUNDARY BUT A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION AS DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TO MAKE
FOR A CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND MAYBE JUST REACHING AROUND 60 FOR
THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME FROST AND/OR FREEZE
HEADLINES A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.
OTHER THAN THE CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE QUIET WITH DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER BY SUNDAY BY 5-10 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH STILL
REMAINING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
FURTHER AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY AND INCREASE FURTHER FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN CHANCES ALSO APPEAR TO BE ON
THE INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK AS MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE REGION SO FOR
NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS BY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A FOG BANK IS MOVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION, WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KTPA, KPIE, AND
EVENTUALLY KSRQ. THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FOG BANK, SO IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. HOWEVER, SOME RADIATIVE FOG IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
IS LIKELY CLOSER TO SUNRISE. QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MARINE ZONES, WHICH WILL MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT IN AREAS WHERE
FOG IS MOST DENSE. THE SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
REACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
SEAS REACHING 3-4 FEET. WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN CONTROL, THOUGH SEAS STILL REMAIN
AROUND 1-3 FEET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO REACH
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGHER FIRE DANGER CONCERN. DEEPER MOISTURE
THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 72 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 77 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 76 45 64 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 61 73 49 62 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 54 71 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 70 51 59 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
AVIATION...FLANNERY
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