164
FXUS62 KTBW 200136
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
836 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
ONCE AGAIN, FOG IS THE MAIN IMPACT THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH, A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY
IS COMBINING WITH A LIGHT WIND, COOL SSTS, AND A MILD EVENING TO
CREATE A THICK, PATCH THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THIS IS CAUSING LOW VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND THE
IMMEDIATE TAMPA BAY AREA, AND LOOKS TO DO SO FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
YET. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM, WHEN
THE BULK OF THIS FOG SHOULD CLEAR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THIS FOG PATCH WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH, AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR HAS AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATION FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, THE COMPETING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MAKE THE FINAL OUTCOME FAR LESS CERTAIN AFTER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR THIS FOG BANK TO SLOWLY DISPERSE AND
AS IT GETS LATER, TEMPERATURES COOL, AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
HOWEVER, RADIATIVE FOG OVER LAND WILL FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG IN
NATURE LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH, HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE ELEMENTS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A FOG BANK IS MOVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION, WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KTPA, KPIE, AND
EVENTUALLY KSRQ. THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FOG BANK, SO IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. HOWEVER, SOME RADIATIVE FOG IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
IS LIKELY CLOSER TO SUNRISE. QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SEA FOG CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING, WITH FOG NOW FILLING IN ACROSS TAMPA BAY AS WELL. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FOG SPREADS
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST
NIGHT FOR AWHILE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN INCREASING WITH
THE STRONGER GRADIENT, FAVORING CHOPPIER SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 72 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 77 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 76 45 64 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 61 73 49 62 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 54 71 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 70 51 59 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL
SARASOTA-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-
PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
FLANNERY
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