636
FXUS62 KTBW 200723
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTEND OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE. A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPTIVA AND HAS MOVED
LOCALLY ONSHORE. THIS AREA OF FOG IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE
COAST. FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL, AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY
WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER DRIER AIR. SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S
CENTRAL, AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S NORTH, AROUND 60 CENTRAL, AND
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO VEER TO THE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO MODIFY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER MOVING ONSHORE, A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
INTERIOR.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY DRY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ADVECTING WARMER MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
AREAS OF IFR CIGS 002-004 WILL IMPACT MAINLY LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AND LCL IFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG.
THE AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL LIFT AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SKIES BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SKC THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SCEC CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD RUN JUST BELOW SCEC LEVELS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 46 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 77 49 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 76 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 73 49 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 70 38 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 69 51 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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