086
FXUS62 KTBW 201208
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
708 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTEND OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE. A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPTIVA AND HAS MOVED
LOCALLY ONSHORE. THIS AREA OF FOG IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE
COAST. FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL, AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER DRIER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S
NORTH, AROUND 60 CENTRAL, AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO MODIFY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EACH DAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MOVING ONSHORE, A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE INTERIOR.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY DRY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ADVECTING WARMER MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
PATCHY LOW STRATUS WILL SUPPORT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING BUT DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW THESE
LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH NW WINDS TODAY AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SCEC CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD RUN JUST BELOW SCEC LEVELS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 46 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 77 49 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 76 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 73 49 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 70 38 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 69 51 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
AVIATION...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...ADAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADAVIS
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