981
FXUS62 KTBW 201731
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND LAND AREAS BUT THESE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE AS THE INCOMING DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT THE REMAINING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AS THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THERE WILL THEN BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WITH OVERALL PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BEFORE HIGHS DROP
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BY TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTEND OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE. A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPTIVA AND HAS MOVED
LOCALLY ONSHORE. THIS AREA OF FOG IS PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE
COAST. FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL, AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER DRIER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S
NORTH, AROUND 60 CENTRAL, AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH, LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO MODIFY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EACH DAY THROUGH
MID WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MOVING ONSHORE, A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE INTERIOR.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY DRY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ADVECTING WARMER MORE HUMID AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
TAF PERIOD DUE TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. AFTER THE
LAST OF THE LOW STRATUS ERODES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SCEC CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD RUN JUST BELOW SCEC LEVELS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 46 61 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 49 66 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 46 63 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 49 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 38 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 51 60 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...ADAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADAVIS
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