358
FXUS62 KTBW 201956
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAN
WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AND 40S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE CHILLY AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AND DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES,
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH
LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES OR LESS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. IT WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FROST
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SLIDE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO LATE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES BY
MONDAY AND VALUES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS EVE ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT, A MOISTENING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK AS POPS
SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS, AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EAST COAST BUT MAY OCCASIONALY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO OUR INTERIOR
AREAS AT TIMES. THIS INVERTED TROUGH MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS IT LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND FURTHER UPSTREAM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
FORCING FOR ASCENT OFFERED FOR OUR AREA SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWER CHANCES DAILY INTO THE CHRISTMAS DAY
HOLIDAY. BY LATE WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
MAY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
BUT DETAILS IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK. REGARDLESS, THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE BEFORE TRENDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
TAF PERIOD DUE TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. AFTER THE
LAST OF THE LOW STRATUS ERODES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND TO
START THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS REACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER
TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SEAS REACHING 3-4 FEET. WINDS THEN
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN
CONTROL, THOUGH SEAS STILL REMAIN AROUND 1-3 FEET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE TOMORROW BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS SO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AND EASTERLY BY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 46 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 77 49 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 76 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 73 49 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 70 38 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 69 51 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...ADAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADAVIS
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