553
FXUS62 KTBW 210702
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
202 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HAS AIDED IN USHERING IN VERY
COOL WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TODAY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S CENTRAL, AND
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH JET CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY. A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL VEER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING THE AIRMASS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH TEMPERATURES AND LOW MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMAL
LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE RISK
OF A SHOWER OVER THE INTERIOR.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VEER
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL CREATE WARM CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE
SKC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD,
BECOMING FEW-SCT250 BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THAT REACHES SCEC AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RECOVER LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 44 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 67 45 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 64 45 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 63 45 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 60 35 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 48 66 56 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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