269
FXUS62 KTBW 211127
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
627 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARILY NORTHERLY FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, THEN NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST HAS AIDED IN USHERING IN VERY
COOL WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TODAY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S CENTRAL, AND
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH JET CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY. A
RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL VEER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING THE AIRMASS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH TEMPERATURES AND LOW MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMAL
LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE RISK
OF A SHOWER OVER THE INTERIOR.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VEER
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL CREATE WARM CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 44 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 67 45 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 64 45 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 63 45 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 60 35 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 48 66 56 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...ADAVIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...WYNN
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