511
FXUS62 KTBW 211831
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AS THOSE ALONG THE NATURE COAST WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S WHILE SWFL ONLY REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR LATER TODAY LEADING TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AREAWIDE. ASIDE FROM THE CHILLY WEATHER, MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL START ON SUNDAY
MORNING, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND NICELY AND APPROACH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER MODIFY AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT
OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH SETTING UP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY, WHICH COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW,
WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFF THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. DURING THIS TIME,
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SWFL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
SHIFT THE HIGH FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL TURN OUR FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME, BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOREGO WATERING YOUR PLANTS FOR A DAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED FOR THE NATURE COAST WITH 80S EXPECTED
SOUTH OF I-4.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY, FURTHER
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTS WITH RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 44 68 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 46 73 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 45 71 55 76 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 46 70 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 36 68 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 49 67 57 73 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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