087
FXUS62 KTBW 160025
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
725 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH FOG EXCEPT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
THE BAND MOVES SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTED THE CONVECTION TO BE THAT
STRONG, AND WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH COOLER
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME MORE MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOWARD MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING
MORE OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST FL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC, THE STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES
NORTHEAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BRINING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS ALONG THE NATURE COAST COULD HAVE
CLOSE TO SEVERE LEVEL WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE LINE
OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES SE OVER THE REGION,
AND BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES NEAR TAMPA AREA IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY, COOL AIR WILL FILTER IN. DROPPING THE
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S (NORTH) AND 50S (SOUTH). HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S-70S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY, RETURNING TO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK COULD DIP
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
ELEVATED WINDS WILL IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH TIME TO IMPROVED BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW INTO SUNDAY AS WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PERSIST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING USHERING IN SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND INTERSTATE 4 NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 80 55 73 / 0 50 10 0
FMY 68 83 62 80 / 0 10 20 0
GIF 67 85 54 73 / 0 30 10 0
SRQ 69 81 57 76 / 0 40 10 0
BKV 63 82 47 71 / 0 50 0 0
SPG 69 77 58 71 / 0 50 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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