306
FXUS62 KTBW 160805
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
DISCUSSION
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING ACROSS THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY, WITH ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
A BREEZY, WARM, AND HUMID DAY IS FORECAST, THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT OVERALL, THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED, WITH JUST A MARGINAL RISK FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER, DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS BACK TOWARD NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES (THOUGH STILL OVERALL NICE) AND THEN THESE VALUES
INCREASE FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC, BRINGING AN EVEN BETTER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR TONIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ADVISORY OR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WINDS THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR MONDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 54 72 54 / 80 10 0 0
FMY 83 61 80 60 / 20 30 0 0
GIF 84 54 73 52 / 60 20 0 0
SRQ 81 56 76 56 / 70 20 0 0
BKV 81 46 72 44 / 80 0 0 0
SPG 78 56 71 57 / 80 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
CARLISLE
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