881
FXUS62 KTBW 161843
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SE OVER THE AREA. THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS IS PRIMARILY PRODUCING RAIN, WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AND SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD AND TAPERING OFF ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DROP FOR MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY, DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES HEAT UP TO AROUND 80 BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER BLAST OF COOLER, DRIER AIR IS JUST ON THE HORIZON AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FOR THE AREA. A MORE PRONOUNCED DROP OF TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS MID WEEK FRONT WITH THE NATURE COAST LIKELY
TO DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECENT OVER THE PENINSULA.
LIKELY REACHING TPA, PIE, LAL BETWEEN 21-24Z. THE LINE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT NE. BY TUESDAY WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, HOWEVER THE N/NE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATER TOMORROW
BRINGING BACK THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT
ADVISORY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION TOMORROW, DROPPING RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MASS OF COLD, DRY AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 54 72 55 77 / 30 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 62 82 / 20 0 0 10
GIF 54 72 54 77 / 50 0 0 10
SRQ 56 76 57 78 / 40 0 0 0
BKV 46 71 45 77 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 56 71 58 75 / 40 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
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