311
FXUS62 KTBW 170015
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT AND THE SHIFT TO BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME COOLER DRIER AIR HAS
ALREADY MOVED IN TO LOCATIONS FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH THE REAL PUSH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BUT
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST INITIALLY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT WILL VEER TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY
MORNING. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT TPA,
PIE, AND SRQ.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SE OVER THE AREA. THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS IS PRIMARILY PRODUCING RAIN, WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AND SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD AND TAPERING OFF ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DROP FOR MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY, DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES HEAT UP TO AROUND 80 BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER BLAST OF COOLER, DRIER AIR IS JUST ON THE HORIZON AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FOR THE AREA. A MORE PRONOUNCED DROP OF TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS MID WEEK FRONT WITH THE NATURE COAST LIKELY
TO DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS WITH
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP
CURRENT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR
MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION TOMORROW, DROPPING RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MASS OF COLD, DRY AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 54 72 55 77 / 30 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 62 82 / 20 0 0 10
GIF 54 72 54 77 / 50 0 0 10
SRQ 56 76 57 78 / 40 0 0 0
BKV 46 71 45 77 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 56 71 58 75 / 40 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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